Hurricane Harvey has struck a significant blow to the Houston, Texas metro area, home to the sixth largest import terminal in the world, as well as all of the shipping lanes in the Gulf Coast area. Given the strong economic linkages between the gulf coast and the country as a whole, Harvey is a disaster that will impact the U.S. economy far beyond that of the gulf coast.
On Thursday, August 31, 2017, Institute for Supply Management® opened a special survey that asked members of the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committees to assess as best they could how Harvey might impact six key business metrics and whether they may be impacted by shortages of input materials due to Harvey.
The survey found that two-thirds (67 percent) of responding supply managers believe input materials pricing will be at least somewhat negatively impacted over the next three months with greater than one-quarter (27 percent) expecting prices to be negatively or very negatively impacted. Relatedly, a majority (56 percent) of respondents believe supplier deliveries will be at least somewhat negatively impacted over the next three months with nearly one-fifth (19 percent) expecting deliveries to be negatively or very negatively impacted.
The manufacturing PMI® and non-manufacturing NMI® summarize supply managers’ reports as to how their organizations fared in the past month with regard to a set of key business metrics. For manufacturing, those metrics are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories of input materials. For non-manufacturing, those metrics are new orders, business activity (the analog of production), employment, and supplier deliveries. The first section of the special survey asked members of the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committees to assess as best they could how Harvey might impact those metrics over the next three months and six months. Additionally, both committees were asked about potential impact on input materials pricing and non-manufacturing committee members were also asked about inventories of input materials.
Broadly speaking, the six metrics organized by severity of impact into three groups. Prices of input materials and supplier deliveries of input materials, not surprisingly, comprised the group of metrics most likely to be negatively impacted by Harvey. Production, new orders, and inventories of input materials comprised the second group. Employment was the only metric in the third group of least impacted metrics. Notably, even though the clean-up and rebuilding of the Texas coast is only in its earliest stages, more than 95 percent of respondents were consistently able to assess the impact of Harvey on these metrics. This very low level of uncertainty is unusual.
Most Impacted Metrics
Respondents expect that prices and speed of delivery will be most strongly impacted. Overall, 67 percent of respondents expect at least some negative impact to prices over the next three months with 27 percent of respondents expecting negative to very negative impacts. Even six months out, a majority (56 percent) expect at least some negative impact on prices. The manufacturing sub-sectors are more concerned than their non-manufacturing counterparts about negative price impacts three and six months out.
The findings with regard to supplier deliveries are similar, but less dramatic. Overall, 54 percent of respondents expect at least some negative impact to deliveries over the next three months with 19 percent expecting negative to very negative impacts. Six months out, a more than one-third (36 percent) expect at least some negative impact on prices. The manufacturing sub-sectors are notably more concerned than their non-manufacturing counterparts about slowed deliveries three and six months out.
